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The percentage of Stocks in a Bullish Upswing for all Categories are
70% of the Dow Jones is on an Upswing
76% of the S&P 100 is on an Upswing
83% of the Nasdaq 100 is on an Upswing
80% of all Three Indexes Top Holdings is on an Upswing
I am very concerned with the amount of Bearish Divergence showing up between Price and our Momentum indicators.
Also the Bearish Divergences between Price and our Market Breath Indicator.
These Bearish Divergences usually form when the Index is about to TOP or PULL BACK. We must be careful
The bottom line is that the market is at a critical point in time (earnings season) and at a critical level on the Charts.
A picture is worth a Thousand Words
In our opinion below are the MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS IN THE STOCK MARKET at this TIME
Updated Charts as of Friday 1-27-23 Market Close
We will focus on the INDEXES today because in our opinion they are the most important at this time (remember 75% of all Stocks will follow the Major Market Indexes).
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the S&P 500 Index Notice the Pirce Action is now above the Downward Trending Trendline and the Horizontal resistance line (in red). Also, Notice that the price is above the top of the High Volume Price Level, But it will be approaching a heavy consolidation area from back in June of 2022 ( the blue-shaded area) and also the 4100 resistance area. This may cause prices to stall.
The question is will the price stay above these levels, if we get a pullback will the price find support and then continue its rally? If not Prices may move LOWER.
Take a Look at the Chart Below its a Daily Structural Chart of the Nasdaq Index Notice that the price is above the internal trendline and is trying to break overhead resistance (the yellow horizontal line). The price tried to break above the horizontal line (11,667.49) but failed to close above it, we must see a close above this line and find support at the internal uptrending trendline. If not Prices may move LOWER.
Look at the Daily Chart Below of the Nasdaq Index with our Key Moving Averages. The price is right at the 200-Day Moving Average and trying to break above it. If the price breaks above and closes above the 200 Day MA this will positive. We will need to see a break above and close above the 200-Day MA before holding any Long Positions on this Index Overnight.
Note: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are now above the 200 Day MA. The Nasdaq is the only still trading below the 200.
Now let's take a look at the Longer-Trem Weekly Charts of the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index
The S&P500 Index (Weekly) closed just above the 4061.41 resistance level but stop almost at the PENNY at the 4100.96 resistance Level. If the price cannot break above the 4100.96 resistance level it may move lower and break back inside the Downward Trending Trendlines.
The 4100 area is a strong resistance level be careful
The Nasdaq Index (Weekly) closed just above the 11,571.64 resistance level but stop almost to the PENNY at the Internal Uptrending Trendline. The price is stuck between Two Key levels a break above (and close above) the Internal Uptrending Trendline or a break below (and close below) the 11,571.64 resistance (which is now support) will be a key indicator of the possible next direction of the NASDAQ Index (and 75% of all the stock within the Index).
Note: We are still at Key Resistance Levels and the Bearish Divergences are starting to build up. I am careful holding positions overnight. I have been taking profits at the end of the day our just holding small positions overnight until these things resolve themselves.
It's really not that hard. It comes down to PATIENCE.
There will be a tone of Economic News and Earnings reports from the BIG Tech Companies during the week of Monday, Jan. 30th, 2023 thru Friday, Feb. 3rd, 2023. So be on the lookout for huge price swings (that's why holding positions overnight can be very dangerous)
Economic Reports
Monday, Jan. 30, 2023,
Nothing Important
Tuesday, Jan. 31, 20223,
@ 8:30 am Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 9:45 am Chicago PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
Earnings Due
Exxon Mobil (XOM) Earnings Due Before Market Opens (This could be a market mover)
McDonald’s (MCD) Earnings Due Before Market Opens (This could be a market mover)
United Parcel Service (UPS) Earnings Due Before Market Opens (This could be a market mover)
Caterpillar (CAT) Earnings Due Before Market Opens (This could be a market mover)
AMD (AMD) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
@ 8:15 am ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:30 am Crude Oil Inventories
@ 2:00 pm FOMC Statement (This could be a market mover)
@ 2:00 pm Fed Interest Rate Decision (This could be a market mover)
@ 2:30 pm FOMC Press Conference (This could be a market mover)
Earnings Due
Meta Platforms (META) Earnings Due After Market Close (This could be a market mover)
Alibaba ADR (BABA) Earnings Due Unknown
Thursday, February 2, 2023
@ 8:30 am Continuing Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 8:30 am Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 10:00 am Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)
@ 10:00 am Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Dec)
Earnings Due
Apple (AAPL) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Alphabet A (GOOGL) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Amazon.com (AMZN) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Friday, February 3, 2023
@ 8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Average Weekly Hours (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Participation Rate (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Unemployment Rate (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am Services PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 3:30 pm CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)
@ 3:30 pm CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)
The Bulls are fighting and the market is in a New Confirmed Uptrend, Market Breadth is starting to get near extremes also forming several Bearish Divergences. The market can top out at these levels. Volume is coming into the market slowly and also forming a Bearish Divergence with the On Balance Volume Indicator. Be Careful
We are in earnings season so we must be careful
Thank You
Rod
BTA
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