Major Market Swing Signal (End of Day) Friday 2-3-23
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The percentage of Stocks in a Bullish Upswing for all Categories are
63% of the Dow Jones is on an Upswing
69% of the S&P 100 is on an Upswing
72% of the Nasdaq 100 is on an Upswing
69% of all Three Indexes Top Holdings is on an Upswing
All Three Major Indexes traded down today. The Dow traded Down 0.38%, The S&P 500 traded down 1.04% and the Nasdaq traded down 1.59%.
All Three Major Indexes had a Key Reversal Day with above Average Volume this could be a signal of a possible Reversal.
A picture is worth a Thousand Words
Updated Charts as of Friday 2-3-23 Market Close
We are watching the Dow Jone Index. It was the leader to the upside of all the Indexes (it broke out first) now it is at a critical point.
I will be watching this Index closely. This Index seems to be setting up for a possible move. I think this Index may be one of my upcoming trades. If so I will be using the DIA as the trading vehicle. The DIA is the ETF that tracks the Dow Jones Index.
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the Dow Jones Index. Notice it is trading just below the Horizontal Resistance line at 34,243.85 and the Downward Trending Trendline that has been in place all of 2022. There is also a Support Level at 33,613.03 I will be keeping a close eye on this Index.
Below is a Daily Chart of the Dow Jones Index with the Key Moving Averages. The Dow Jones the only Index that is now testing the 21-Day MA (in Yellow). Also approaching the 50-Day MA (in Red) as possible Support. These are two of our key intermediate-term Moving Averages a bounce of them as support or a break below them is what we will be looking for
Below is a Weekly Chart of the Dow Jones Index with the Key Moving Averages. Notice that the Price action for this week closed exactly where it opened the week. This is a Weekly Bar of indecision (aka a Doji).
Also notice that the Low for the week stopped right at the 8-week MA, 13-week MA, 40-Week MA, and 100-week MA. The Price opened and closed the week right on the 4-week MA.
There was also Above Average Volume and Higher Volume than the previous week this is a distribution week.
There is a lot of support under price and an area of confluence. We are looking for a bounce off this level or a break below it
Below is a Weekly Structural Chart of the Dow Jones Index. We clearly see that the price is stuck inside the Horizontal Lines and Upward/Downward Trendlines. We are watching for a break of these levels.
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the S&P 500 Index. The price action is inside the heavy consolidation area. The price also had a Key Reversal day, closing at the lower end of the day's range. A break below the bottom of the range will be negative.
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the Nasdaq Index. The same thing happened in the Nasdaq. The price action is inside the heavy consolidation area. The price also had a Key Reversal day, closing at the lower end of the day's range. A break below the bottom of the range will be negative.
Below is a Weekly Structural Chart of the NASDAQ. Notice how the Price traded up to the Downward Trending Trendline going back to last year and got rejected. The Prices also closed back below the 12,085.85 Level, this is a Negative. If the price can not break above these levels we are looking for lower prices. The NASDAQ is at the Moment of Truth.
When you look at the Weekly Structural Chart of the Nasdaq above where the NASDAQ is testing the final Downward Trending Trendline, you can see we are definitely at the Final Moment of TRUTH
If the Price breaks above these Levels we have to give the Bulls Control and prices could be on a New Run
We are also keeping an eye on the Bond Market, Yields, and the Dollar. It seems like they are setting up for a Move also. The ETF Ticker Symbols are:
TLT - 20+ yr Treasury Bond ETF
TNX.X - 10- Year Treasury Note Rate ETF
UUP - Invesco DB US Dollar ETF
GOVT - IShs US Treasury Bond ETF
HYG - IShs High Yield Bond ETF (companies with bad credit)
JNK - Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (companies with bad credit)
LQD - IShs Investment Grade Corp. Bonds (companies with good credit)
A Strong move in the Above ETFs can cause a move in the Overall Market.
Monday, Feb. 6, 2023,
ON Semiconductor (ON) Earnings Due Before Market Opens
Tuesday, Feb. 7, 20223,
@ 12:00 pm Fed Chair Powell Speaks (This will be a market mover)
BP ADR (BP) Earnings Due Before Market Opens
Wednesday, February 8, 2023
@ 9:15 am FOMC Member Williams Speaks (This will be a market mover)
@ 10:30 am Crude Oil Inventories
Walt Disney (DIS) Earnings Due After Market Close
Thursday, February 9, 2023
@ 8:30 am Continuing Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg (This could be a market mover)
Friday, February 10, 2023
@10:00 am Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb)
@ 10:00 am Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) (This could be a market mover)
@ 12:30 pm FOMC Member Waller Speaks (This will be a market mover)
@ 4:00 pm FOMC Member Harker Speaks (This will be a market mover)
The Bulls are fighting and the market is in a New Confirmed Uptrend, Market Breadth is starting to get near extremes also forming several Bearish Divergences. The market can top out at these levels.
We are in earnings season so we must be careful