Major Market Swing Signal (End of Day) Monday 1-30-23
This content and any associated materials are for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and nothing should be construed as a recommendation or rating to buy, hold, or sell any securities. BTA is not a licensed Adviser and can not give financial advice. Please see our Disclaimer on the Website
The percentage of Stocks in a Bullish Upswing for all Categories are
53% of the Dow Jones is on an Upswing
50% of the S&P 100 is on an Upswing
55% of the Nasdaq 100 is on an Upswing
58% of all Three Indexes Top Holdings is on an Upswing
All of the Major Indexes traded down pretty well Monday. The Dow traded down 0.77%, The S&P 500 traded down 1.30% and the Nasdaq traded down 1.96%
The Swing Signal for all three categories has decreased a lot, they are now just barely bullish. This is no surprise to us because the Up Swing percentage has been decreasing the last few days and also the number of Bearish divergences has been increasing
I am very concerned with the amount of Bearish Divergence showing up between Price and our Momentum indicators.
Also the Bearish Divergences between Price and our Market Breath Indicator.
These Bearish Divergences usually form when the Index is about to TOP or PULL BACK. We must be careful.
This is part of the reason why Markets sold off Monday
The bottom line is that the market is at a critical point in time (earnings season) and at a critical level on the Charts.
A picture is worth a Thousand Words
In our opinion below are the MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS IN THE STOCK MARKET at this TIME
Updated Charts as of Monday 1-30-23 Market Close
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the S&P 500 Index Notice the Pirce Action Monday traded back below the Horizontal resistance line (in red). and the Upward Internal Trending Trendline. Also, Notice that the price fell back below the top of the High Volume Price Level,
The Price is back below key levels and now the question is are we going to find support at the long-term downward trending trendline that we have been watching going back to last year (Cyan Thick Downtrending Trendline)
Monday's price action never made it to the heavy consolidation area from back in June of 2022 ( the blue-shaded area) and also the 4100 resistance area. This is and will remain a key area of resistance that price must overcome.
The question was and still is can we get above these levels?
With all pullbacks like Monday will the price find support and then continue its rally? If not Prices may move LOWER.
Take a Look at the Chart Below its a Daily Structural Chart of the Nasdaq Index Notice that the price Fell Back Below the internal Upward trendline and found resistance at the overhead resistance (the yellow horizontal line). The price tried to break above the horizontal line (11,667.49) but failed to close above it. The Price has now feel below the support at 11,424.61 (prior resistance). we have to see prices get above these levels in order to feel strongly about an upward move in prices If not Prices may move LOWER.
Look at the Daily Chart Below of the Nasdaq Index with our Key Moving Averages. The price was right at the 200-Day Moving Average and trying to break above it. We stated in the past morning notes that If the price breaks above and closes above the 200 Day MA this will positive. On Monday prices failed to get above the 200 Day MA and got rejected (the 200-Day MA held as resistance).
We will need to see a break above and close above the 200-Day MA before holding any Long Positions on this Index Overnight.
Note: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are now above the 200 Day MA. The Nasdaq is the only still trading below the 200.
Now let's take a look at the Longer-Trem Weekly Charts of the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index
Last Week the S&P500 Index (Weekly) closed just above the 4061.41 resistance level but stop almost at the PENNY at the 4100.96 resistance Level.
Notice that This week Prices found resistance and opened lower. Prices have now fallen below the upward trending trendline and stopped almost to the PENNY at the long-term downward trending trendline we have been watching from last year (Cyan thick down-trending trendline)
If the price cannot break above the 4061.41 and 4100.96 resistance levels and the trendlines it may move lower and break back inside the Downward Trending Trendlines.
The 4061.41 and 4100 area is a strong resistance level be careful
Last Week the Nasdaq Index (Weekly) closed just above the 11,571.64 resistance level but stop almost to the PENNY at the Internal Uptrending Trendline.
Notice This Week's Price Found Resistance and Opened Lower below the 11.571.64 Level and failed to get back above it Monday
The price was stuck between Two Key levels. We Stated in Last weeks morning Note if the price break above (and close above) the Internal Uptrending Trendline or a break below (and close below) the 11,571.64 resistance (which is now support) will be a key indicator of the possible next direction of the NASDAQ Index (and 75% of all the stock within the Index).
Well we have now broken below the levels if price does not make its way back above these levels LOOK OUT BELOW
Note: We are still at Key Resistance Levels and the Bearish Divergences are starting to build up. I am careful holding positions overnight. I have been taking profits at the end of the day our just holding small positions overnight until these things resolve themselves.
It's really not that hard. It comes down to PATIENCE.
There will be a tone of Economic News and Earnings reports from the BIG Tech Companies during the week of Monday, Jan. 30th, 2023 thru Friday, Feb. 3rd, 2023. So be on the lookout for huge price swings (that's why holding positions overnight can be very dangerous)
Tuesday, Jan. 31, 20223,
@ 8:30 am Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 9:45 am Chicago PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
Exxon Mobil (XOM) Earnings Due Before Market Opens (This could be a market mover)
McDonald’s (MCD) Earnings Due Before Market Opens (This could be a market mover)
United Parcel Service (UPS) Earnings Due Before Market Opens (This could be a market mover)
Caterpillar (CAT) Earnings Due Before Market Opens (This could be a market mover)
AMD (AMD) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
@ 8:15 am ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:30 am Crude Oil Inventories
@ 2:00 pm FOMC Statement (This could be a market mover)
@ 2:00 pm Fed Interest Rate Decision (This could be a market mover)
@ 2:30 pm FOMC Press Conference (This could be a market mover)
Meta Platforms (META) Earnings Due After Market Close (This could be a market mover)
Alibaba ADR (BABA) Earnings Due Unknown
Thursday, February 2, 2023
@ 8:30 am Continuing Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 8:30 am Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 10:00 am Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)
@ 10:00 am Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Dec)
Apple (AAPL) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Alphabet A (GOOGL) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Amazon.com (AMZN) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Friday, February 3, 2023
@ 8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Average Weekly Hours (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Participation Rate (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Unemployment Rate (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am Services PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 3:30 pm CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)
@ 3:30 pm CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)
The Bulls are fighting and the market is in a New Confirmed Uptrend, Market Breadth is starting to get near extremes also forming several Bearish Divergences. The market can top out at these levels. Volume is coming into the market slowly and also forming a Bearish Divergence with the On Balance Volume Indicator. Be Careful
We are in earnings season so we must be careful