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The percentage of Stocks in a Bullish Upswing for all Categories are
60% of the Dow Jones is on an Upswing
62% of the S&P 100 is on an Upswing
48% of the Nasdaq 100 is on an Upswing
52% of all Three Indexes Top Holdings is on an Upswing
The Swing has turned Bullish for the Dow Jones, S&P 100, and All the Top Holdings. This can change quickly because if you notice they are barely bullish, just over 51%
If Prices trade down HARD tomorrow on a High CPI number the swings will change back to bearish
All Three Major Indexes traded up today. The Dow traded up 1.11%, The S&P 500 traded up 1.14% and the Nasdaq traded up 1.48%, but like I said before Tuesday is the important day when the CPI number comes out at 8:30 am. This report will give us a read on the Inflation picture
If inflation comes in higher then the market may sell off. If Inflation comes in Low then the Market may rally higher
We are waiting until after Tuesday Morning before we place any new trades.
A picture is worth a Thousand Words
Updated Charts as of Monday 2-13-23 Market Close
We are watching the Dow Jone Index. This Index still seems to be setting up for a possible move (I spoke about this over a week ago on 2-3-23).
I think this Index may be one of my upcoming trades. If so I will be using the DIA as the trading vehicle. The DIA is the ETF that tracks the Dow Jones Index.
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the Dow Jones Index. Notice it is still trading just below the Horizontal Resistance line at 34,243.85 and barely above the Downward Trending Trendline that has been in place all of 2022. There is also a Support Level at 33,613.03, the price has been finding support at this level for several days. I will be keeping a close eye on this Index.
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the DIA (the ETF that tracks the Dow Jones Index).
Like I stated above this will be the trading vehicle I'm using to follow the Dow Jone Index
Notice the Chart Structure is almost identical to the Dow Jones Index
I'm Looking for a break above and Close below the 343.50 Level (the Red Horizontal line) with good Volume
Or I'm Looking for a break below and Close below the 338.70 1st Level then 335.58 2nd Level (red line)
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the S&P 500 Index. The price action is back inside the heavy consolidation area. This area is a strong resistance a break above it is positive. A break back below it will be negative
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the Nasdaq Index. The price action is below the heavy consolidation area, This is a strong area of Resistance. A break above the area would be positive and if the price stays below then breaks below the 11,667.49 level this would be negative.
Tuesday's CPI will tell us a Lot. The Market is really within a trading range. I am watching the following Securities for a possible trade up or down after the CPI report / Tuesday:
DIA - 343.50 Resistance Level and Support at 338.70 & 335.58
QQQ - a break below the 5 & 9 Day MA and then a break below the support level on the 65 Min Chart @ 302.20 and Daily and Weekly Support level at 297.45
IWM - A break below the 21-Day MA. Also Resistance @ 193.50 and support at 188.09 & 187.92
AAPL - Resistance at 154.70 and Support Level @ 150.50 on the 65 Min Chart
AMZN - Daily Resistance Level @ 101.10 and Support @ 97.50
Economic Reports
Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2023,
@ 8:30 am Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am CPI (YoY) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am CPI (MoM) (Jan)
@ 11:30 am FOMC Member Harker Speaks
@ 2:05 pm FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Wednesday, February 15, 2023
@ 8:30 am Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
@ 9:15 am Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan)
@ 9:15 am Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
@ 10:00 am Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec)
Thursday, February 16, 2023
@ 8:30 am Continuing Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Building Permits (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Building Permits (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Housing Starts (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Core PPI (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am PPI (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Philly Fed Employment (Feb)
@ 8:45 am FOMC Member Mester Speaks
@ 13:30 pm FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Friday, February 17, 2023
@ 8:45 am FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
@ 10:00 am US Leading Index (MoM) (Jan)
@ 10:00 am CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions
@ 3:30 pm CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
The Bulls are fighting and the market is in a New Confirmed Uptrend, Market Breadth is starting to get near extremes also forming several Bearish Divergences. The market can top out at these levels.
We are in earnings season so we must be careful
Thank You
Rod
BTA