Major Market Swing Signal (End of Day) Thursday 2-2-23
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The percentage of Stocks in a Bullish Upswing for all Categories are
63% of the Dow Jones is on an Upswing
77% of the S&P 100 is on an Upswing
88% of the Nasdaq 100 is on an Upswing
81% of all Three Indexes Top Holdings is on an Upswing
The Dow traded Down 0.11%, The S&P 500 traded up 1.47 and the Nasdaq traded up 3.25%. The Nasdaq was the best performer today because of the Huge move by MEAT (Facebook).
The interesting thing today to me is that the Nasdaq had a huge up day but notice that the percentage of the Nasdaq 100 in a bullish upswing did not change from Tuesday's close it held at 88% (see the Swing Signal).
Also, the percentage of stocks above there 20 Day MA in the NYSE and the S&P 500 actually went down compared to Tuesday. This is creating a clear divergence with Price. That's not what we want to see when the indexes have a strong up day.
A picture is worth a Thousand Words
Updated Charts as of Thursday 2-2-23 Market Close
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the S&P 500 Index Notice the Price is now inside the Blue Consolidation area from June and August 2022. The question is can the price break above the consolidation area or fall back below it?
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the NASDAQ Index Notice the Price is now inside the Blue Consolidation area from June 2022. The question is can the price break above the consolidation area or fall back below it?
Below is a Structural Chart of the S&P500 Index (Weekly) that has broken above its overhead resistance and is now testing the 4177.51 Resistance level. This is positive, the question now is can we stay above these levels and they hold as support
Below is a Structural Chart of the Nasdaq Index (Weekly) closed above the 11,571.64 resistance level and the Internal Uptrending Trendline acting s resistance. Also the 12,085.50 Resistance Level.
The NASDAQ is at the Moment of Truth. It is testing the Final Downward Trending Trendline going across the highs from all of last year (thick cyan line). Thursday the Price traded right to it and stopped. Will prices break above it and the Overhead Resistance at 12,384.99, also the Upward Trending Internal Trendline?
Look at the Weekly Chart Below of the Nasdaq Index with the Key weekly Moving Averages. Notice that the Price found Support almost to the penny on the Upward trending 4 Week MA (white), 30 Week MA (blue), 40 Week MA (cyan), and 200 Week MA (wheat). This is what you call a strong support level and area of confluence.
Now price is above the 50-week Moving Average (in Brown) and approaching the 150 Week MA (in Pink)
When you look at both the Structural Chart of the Nasdaq above where the NASDAQ is testing the final Downward Trending Trendline and the Weekly Chart of the Nasdaq with Key Moving Averages from above you can see we are definitely at the Final Moment of TRUTH
If the Price breaks above these Levels we have to give the Bulls Control and prices could be on a New Run
Friday, February 3, 2023
@ 8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Average Weekly Hours (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Participation Rate (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Unemployment Rate (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am Services PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 3:30 pm CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)
@ 3:30 pm CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)
The Bulls are fighting and the market is in a New Confirmed Uptrend, Market Breadth is starting to get near extremes also forming several Bearish Divergences. The market can top out at these levels. Volume is coming into the market slowly and also forming a Bearish Divergence with the On Balance Volume Indicator. Be Careful
We are in earnings season so we must be careful