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The percentage of Stocks in a Bullish Upswing for all Categories are
66% of the Dow Jones is on an Upswing
68% of the S&P 100 is on an Upswing
62% of the Nasdaq 100 is on an Upswing
66% of all Three Indexes Top Holdings is on an Upswing
All of the Major Indexes rebounded and traded up Tuesday. The Dow traded up 1.09%, The S&P 500 traded up 1.46% and the Nasdaq traded up 1.67%
Tuesday was an Upside Key Reversal day on Above Average Volume and Higher Volume than the previous day.
As we have said before this week is going to be filled with huge Price Swings up and down Due to Earnings of the large mega Cap Stock and major economic reports / Federal Reserve Speech
A picture is worth a Thousand Words
In our opinion below are the MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS IN THE STOCK MARKET at this TIME
Updated Charts as of Tuesday 1-31-23 Market Close
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the S&P 500 Index Notice the Pirce Action found support and traded back above the Uptrending Internal trendline and the red Horizontal Resistance level
Price is right back where it was last week, above the Top of the High Volume Price Level testing the Heavy Consolidation Area from back in June of 2022 ( the blue-shaded area). Also the 4100 and 4110.75 resistance area. This is and will remain a key area of resistance that price must overcome.
Take a Look at the Chart Below its a Daily Structural Chart of the Nasdaq Index Notice that the price is still below the Internal Upward trendline and the overhead resistance (the yellow horizontal line) at 11,667.49.
The price tried to break above the horizontal line (11,667.49) last week but failed to close above it. We have to see prices get above these levels in order to feel strongly about an upward move in prices If not Prices may move LOWER.
Look at the Daily Chart Below of the Nasdaq Index with our Key Moving Averages. The price is still below the 200-Day Moving Average and trying to break above it.
We will need to see a break above and close above the 200-Day MA before holding any Long Positions on this Index Overnight.
Note: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are now above the 200 Day MA. The Nasdaq is the only still trading below the 200.
Now let's take a look at the Longer-Trem Weekly Charts of the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index
The S&P500 Index (Weekly) is right back where it ended last week trapped between the 4061.41 resistance level and the 4100.96 resistance Level. Price is still holding above the Trendlines
If the price cannot stay above the 4061.41 and 4100.96 resistance levels this will become a problem. Or if the price moves lower and break back inside the Trend Trendlines that may lead to lower Prices.
The Nasdaq Index (Weekly) closed just above the 11,571.64 resistance level once again and is still below the Internal Uptrending Trendline acting s resistance.
The price is stuck between Two Key levels. We Stated in Last weeks morning Note if the price break above (and close above) the Internal Uptrending Trendline or a break below (and close below) the 11,571.64 resistance (which is now support) this will be a key Signal of the possible next direction of the NASDAQ Index (and 75% of all the stock within the Index).
Look at the Weekly Chart Below of the Nasdaq Index this is also an extremely important chart. Notice that the Price traded down and found Support almost to the penny on the Upward trending 4 Week MA (white), 30 Week MA (blue), 40 Week MA (cyan), and 200 Week MA (wheat). This is what you call a strong support level and area of confluence.
If the Price breaks back below this strong support it can easily trade much lower, because it will take a lot of momentum to break through Long term Weekly Levels (the longer the term the stronger it is).
So to sum things up we have key resistance above prices and strong key support below prices (know your Levels). We are looking for a convincing breakthrough and close in either direction.
We will keep an open mind, have patience, stay ready, and play the middle.
Wednesday is the biggest day of the week with the Federal Reserve Rate decision and Speech also META (Facebook) reports earnings after the close.
Be on the lookout for huge price swings (that's why holding positions overnight can be very dangerous)
Economic Reports
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
@ 8:15 am ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:30 am Crude Oil Inventories
@ 2:00 pm FOMC Statement (This could be a market mover)
@ 2:00 pm Fed Interest Rate Decision (This could be a market mover)
@ 2:30 pm FOMC Press Conference (This could be a market mover)
Earnings Due
Meta Platforms (META) Earnings Due After Market Close (This could be a market mover)
Alibaba ADR (BABA) Earnings Due Unknown
Thursday, February 2, 2023
@ 8:30 am Continuing Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 8:30 am Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4)
@ 10:00 am Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)
@ 10:00 am Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Dec)
Earnings Due
Apple (AAPL) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Alphabet A (GOOGL) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Amazon.com (AMZN) Earnings Due After the Close (This could be a market mover)
Friday, February 3, 2023
@ 8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Average Weekly Hours (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Participation Rate (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Unemployment Rate (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 9:45 am Services PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 3:30 pm CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)
@ 3:30 pm CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)
The Bulls are fighting and the market is in a New Confirmed Uptrend, Market Breadth is starting to get near extremes also forming several Bearish Divergences. The market can top out at these levels. Volume is coming into the market slowly and also forming a Bearish Divergence with the On Balance Volume Indicator. Be Careful
We are in earnings season so we must be careful
Thank You
Rod
BTA