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Major Market Swing Signal (End of Day) Wednesday 1-18-23

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The percentage of Stocks in a Bullish Upswing for all Categories are


10% of the Dow Jones 30 is on an Upswing


22% of the S&P 100 is on an Upswing


53% of the Nasdaq 100 is on an Upswing


38% of all Three Indexes Top Holdings is on an Upswing


LOIS HAS SIGNALED A CHANGE IN THE SWING in the majority of categories so we must be careful. Until the SWING CHANGES BACK TO BULLISH in the majority of the categories I'm going to be very cautious

Wednesday was not a good day for the Markets. The Dow Jones was down 1.81%, the S&P 500 was down 1.56% and the Nasdaq was down 1.24%.


All Three Major Indexes Had Key Reversal Days on above-average volume and the Nasdaq had a Bearish Outside Day on above-average volume. When a Stock or Index has a Key Reversal Day the stock usually trades down the next day or two


The Chart Structure Changed


The Dow Jones closed below all its Key short-term MA's and the 50-Day MA also broke below 334.33 Daily Fractal. The Dow Jones has also broken below its short-term Weekly MA's


The S&P 500 broke back below the 200 Day MA on Heavy Volume that not a good sign. It's now sitting on the 50 Day as support. If it breaks the 50-Day and 21-Day this will be BAD (look out below). On the weekly chart, the S&P is just below the Key longer-term MAs, but its testing support at the 13 Week


The Nasdaq is slightly below its 5-Day MA. The index is testing support at the 9-Day MA and 50-Day MA if it breaks through look out below. on the Weekly chart its testing support at the 10 Week MA


All Three of the Major Indexes GOT REJECTED at the long-term downward trending trendlines on the Weekly Charts. These trend lines have been in place for the whole year of 2022.


Each time the Indexes tried to break above the trendline it has gotten rejected. The indexes got rejected at this long-term downward trending trendline THREE times in 2022.


The market HAS NOW GOTTEN REJECTED TODAY for the 4th time. The question is will it CONTINUE TO TRADE LOWER or try to retest the downward trendline to the upside (only time will tell)


Keep a close eye on the VIX. The VIX is at an extremely low level now, whenever the VIX traded below 20 last year (2022) the Market TOPPED OUT SHORTLY AFTER.


The VIX was around 18.00 now it is at 20.34 if the VIX spikes upward from here the market should collapse


Earnings have now kicked off. Be careful of companies that are scheduled to report earnings it can cause the stock to DROP hard


REMEMBER THE DEBT CEILING WILL BE REACHED ON THURSDAY 1-19-2023. THIS COULD BECOME A ISSUE FOR STOCKS. IT IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COULD PUSH THE MARKET DOWN (THE MORE THEY FIGHT THE LOWER IT COULD GO)


The Economic News that came out this week was not good in my opinion SOON BAD NEWS WILL BE BAD NEWS


Economic Reports


THIS IS A PACKED WEEK OF ECONOMIC DATA AND FED. MEMBER SPEAKERS BE READY FOR SOME WILD PRICE SWINGS FROM DAY TO DAY


Thursday, July 14, 2023


@ 8:30 am Building Permits (Dec) (This could be a market mover)


@ 8:30 am Building Permits (MoM) (Dec)


@ 8:30 am Housing Starts (MoM) (Dec)


@ 8:30 am Housing Starts (Dec)


@ 8:30 am Continuing Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)


@ 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)


@ 8:30 am Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg (This could be a market mover)


@ 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) (This could be a market mover)


@ 8:30 am Philly Fed Employment (Jan)


@ 11:00 am Crude Oil Inventories


@ 1:15 pm Fed Vice Chair Brainard Speaks (This could be a market mover)


@ 5:30 pm FOMC Member Williams Speaks (This could be a market mover)


Friday, July 15, 2023,


@ 9:00 am FOMC Member Harker Speaks (This could be a market mover)


@ 10:00 am Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)


@ 10:00 am Existing Home Sales (Dec) (This could be a market mover)


@ 3:30 pm CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)


@ 3:30 pm CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (This could be a market mover)


The Bulls are fighting and the market is in a New Confirmed Uptrend, Market Breadth is Strong but it's starting to get near extremes (the market can top out at these levels), Volume is coming into the market slowly.


We are in earnings season so we must be careful


Thank You

Rod

BTA

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