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The percentage of Stocks in a Bullish Upswing for all Categories are
23% of the Dow Jones is on an Upswing
17% of the S&P 100 is on an Upswing
14% of the Nasdaq 100 is on an Upswing
16% of all Three Indexes Top Holdings is on an Upswing
The Major Indexes closed kind of flat Wednesday. The Indexes were basically unchanged. The Nasdaq and the IWM both closed almost right where they opened (Doji day candle stick pattern). This is a day of Indecision
The Market Breadth is still VERY WEAK, If the breadth continues to stay WEAK the Major indexes may continue to sell off, But the Breadth is starting to approach Extreme Levels of bearishness. This is where we could start to see a bounce to the upside
As you Notice above the Major Market Swing Signal is also approaching extreme levels of bearishness and has gotten worse compared to yesterday's percentage. We have to be careful of a possible bounce to the upside
The Adv.-Decl, Issues Diff Green Line is still below Zero. This is showing a lot of weakness in the market.
The Important thing, for now, is that the Major Indexes all found support at the 150-day or 200-Day MA's. Which are long-term Key Moving Averages. This is where the market could bounce to the upside
We spoke about the possibility of the 150-Day MA and the 200-Day MA holding as Support. If the market can not break below these Key MA's then it's possible that we can see higher stock prices
A picture is worth a Thousand Words
Charts updated as of Wednesday 2-22-2023
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the Dow Jones Index.
Notice the Price Action closed just below the Internal Trendlines and the Horozantil level of 33,150.33.
The Price Bounced off of the Red Horzantial Support Line @ 32,906.51 (almost to the Penny)
If the Price Action break through the Red Horzantial Support Line @ 32,906.51 (Which is a long-term Weekly Level) this will be very bearish for the Dow Jones
If the Price Action Breaks above the Internal Trendlines and the Horozantil level of 33,150.33 This could be Bullish
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the S&P 500 Index.
Notice the Price Action found Support at the Red Horozantial Line (Which is a long-term Weekly Level) @ 3983.58, and the Internal Upwardtrending Trendline
If the Price Action break through the Red Horzantial Support Line @ 3983.58 (Which is a long-term Weekly Level) this will be very bearish for the S&P 500, But then we will be approaching the Key Downward Trending Trenlines from Last Year. Which will be a Major Area of Support
The Next Question is can the 4000 level on the S&P 500 hold as Resistance? and the 4027.26 Level, the Red Horozantial Line? This is a long-term Weekly Level.
Below is a Daily Structural Chart of the NASDAQ Index.
Notice the Index found Support @ the 11,230.04 Level almost to the Penny and bounced.
Now let's Look at the Major Indexes with their Key Moving Averages
The Important thing to notice here is that All the Indexes found Support right the Key Moving Averages just as we had anticipated could happen
Dow Jones Index With the Key Moving Averages. Notice the Support at the 150-Day MA (Royal Blue Line). We need to see a break below this MA before we can take another short position
Also, before we can go long the Price action has to get above the 5-Day MA (White Line), 9-Day MA (Green Line), 21-Day MA (Yellow Line), 50-Day (Red Line), and 63-Day MA's (Dashed LineLine). The Overhead Resistance is Huge
S&P 500 Index With the Key Moving Averages. Notice the Support at the 150-Day MA (Royal Blue Line), 50-Day MA (Red Line), and 63-Day MA (Dashed Line). We need to see a break below these MA's before we can take another short position
Also, before we can go long the Price action has to get above the 5-Day MA (White Line), 9-Day MA (Green Line), 21-Day MA (Yellow Line). Which are pointing down and starting to cross below each other. Not a Good look on the short-term moving Averages
Nasdaq Index With the Key Moving Averages. Notice the Support at the 150-Day MA (Royal Blue Line), 200-Day MA (cyan Line), and 63-Day MA (Dashed Line) is just below it all.
These are key Long-Term MA's for the Nasdaq. They can be a strong support level, look for a possible bounce to the upside. We need to see a break below these MA's before we can take another short position
Also, before we can go long the Price action has to get above the 5-Day MA (White Line), 9-Day MA (Green Line), 21-Day MA (Yellow Line). Which are pointing down and starting to cross below each other. Not a Good look on the short-term moving Averages
Remember when these Indexes break one way or the other we will be using the ETF's as our trading Vehicle to track the Indexes
The DIA for the Dow Jones
The SPY for the S&P 500
The QQQ for the NASDAQ
We must keep an eye on all these possible Support Resistance Levels. The Market can bounce off these levels or Break Down through them. Be Careful.
Economic Reports
This Week has some Key Economic News that can really move the markets. There could be some wild price swings this week as the News comes out
Friday Is the PCE this is the Fed's Main Gauge of Inflation. If PCE comes out High the market could take a HARD FALL
Things can change quickly this week. Be Careful
Thursday, February 23, 2023
@ 8:30 am Continuing Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Core PCE Prices (Q4) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am PCE Prices (Q4) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q4) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am GDP Sales (Q4) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:50 am FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (This could be a market mover)
@ 11:00 am Crude Oil Inventories
Friday, February 24, 2023
@ 8:30 am Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am PCE price index (MoM) (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am PCE Price index (YoY) (Jan) (This could be a market mover)
@ 8:30 am Personal Income (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan)
@ 8:30 am Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jan)
@ 10:00 am Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) (This could be a market mover)
@ 10:00 am Michigan Inflation Expectations (Feb)
@ 10:00 am New Home Sales (Jan)
@10:00 am New Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)
@ 10:15 pm FOMC Member Mester Speaks (This will be a market mover)
@ 3:30 am CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net position
@ 3:30 am CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
The Bulls are fighting and the market is in a New Confirmed Uptrend, But the Major Market Indexes are at Key Levels on the Chart, This can change quickly this week. Be Careful
Thank You
Rod
BTA