The first is that first-quarter earnings have been outstanding. According to a Credit Suisse analysis done of 85% of the S&P 500’s companies, 86% beat expectations — with the financial sector clobbering them by 34%, and the rest of the market beating them by 19%. Earnings per share are projected to grow 47% on 10% revenue growth.
The second is that investors aren’t impressed. A Bank of America analysis done on Monday, so missing this last week of results, found companies that beat on both sales and EPS have outperformed the S&P 500 by just 16 basis points the next day, well below the historical average of 151 basis points.
Louis Navellier, the founder and chief investment officer of Navellier & Associates, said the Biden administration’s proposal to hike corporate taxes is what is hanging over the market.
“Within the debate over the market’s near-term outlook, the Goldilocks catalyst will be influenced by how future corporate taxes are structured.
It is likely that after all the super PACs [political action committees] weigh in, the new corporate income-tax rate will likely be around 25%,” he said. “I’m looking for the narrative to quickly shift from ‘selling the news’ to ‘buying the dip’ as the tax debate takes on more clarity,” he writes.